Looking at the strength of Capcom Pro Tour’s online tournaments

A few weeks ago, there was a debate about how much influence the online tournaments in the Capcom Pro Tour should have. Given that there’s 16 tournaments — 15 are done as of this writing — there are plenty of chances for players to do damage.

Most people believed the online tournaments should still be around but weigh less than the live tournaments.

In seeing the discussion, I took a look at the numbers, some which I’ll share here, and I came to the belief that the tournaments should weigh as much as the live events.

The late-round comeback rate — the moment one player reaches less than 25 percent health in a round — is 19.3 percent in online tournaments. In live tournaments, it is 19.6 percent, so there’s virtually no difference.

The average round time is 44.67 seconds in online tournaments, 45.73 seconds in live tournaments. Again, virtually no difference.

Having watched every Top 8, I couldn’t tell why people were raging over the online tournaments. In watching them, there was nothing that stood out as concerning. Nobody in those Top 8s were doing anything that made me think fraud or lucky or whatever ‘negative’ description you want to add.

That, in addition to the numbers I have, made me believe most of the concerns were all in the head.

Even the Top 8 rosters of the online tournaments didn’t seem that off base. Most of the players were known, well known or had won in the past years.

Here was my suggestion a few weeks ago: the online tournaments should carry as much weight as the live tournaments, but there should be a couple of online tournaments cut. Sixteen total was a little too much.

Now that the Capcom Pro Tour has surpassed 50 events, it might be time to change the stance on this slightly.

Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve thought about how many tournaments should be included in the 2018 season, even though the 2017 season isn’t done yet. As of right now, only one tournament for sure should not be brought back for 2018.

How many more should be omitted? Ask 100 people, and there will probably be 100 different answers.

Tournament organizers will likely state their case to Capcom to be included or remain included. Some really strong events might get the ax or be demoted from premier status to regular status. Only Capcom will know when it’s time to break it down.

There’s a way to get a peek into what could come.

Idea: rank all of the Capcom Pro Tour events held so far based on the 50 players who are currently on the global leaderboard. This way, we can see which tournaments have had the strongest players.

(Now, as a heads up, my database of stats includes Top 8s. Points per Capcom Pro Tour event go beyond eight in many events. But I don’t believe going deeper would change what I’m about to show)

I looked at the top 50 players on the Capcom Pro Tour global leaderboard as of Dreamhack Montreal, 54 tournaments complete. Take the 50 players and assign points in reverse order, with the top player (Punk) getting 50 points, and the lowest player (right now it’s Nemo) 1 point.

From there, put the players in each of the Top 8s participated and add up the points.

Here are the top 15 tournaments based on this point system.

The top tournaments are not a surprise. What stands out are the two CPT Online Asia tournaments. Those regionals are locked to Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea, and the competition in the Top 8 has been top tier.

The Top 8 at CPT Online Asia 4 could have been a borderline premier, it was that stacked.

There isn’t even an outlier tournament in the Top 15, and no, the two online tournaments are not outliers.

So in terms of the strongest tournaments, it’s what anyone would expect.

Now, how about the bottom 15? Here they are.

See something that stands out? Eleven of the 15 tournaments on this list are online tournaments.

These tournaments, so far, have had little to no influence on who has or will earn one of the top 30 spots for the Capcom Cup.

That these are mostly online tournaments shocked me when I compiled the numbers. I didn’t think this many online events would have no bearing on who will qualify.

There’s still a chance for these events to get off of this list, and that’s for the players who made the Top 8 in these events to make a run in the final 15 tournaments. It can’t be just one player, it has to be a load of players.

“But Glenn, you can’t just 1 to 50 everyone and look at the tournaments that way.”

In light of that, because that is correct — it’s not a straight line of strength from 1 to 50 — I took the 50 players’ global ranking points and used that to rank the tournaments.

Here’s the Top 15.

The tournaments that were in the previous Top 15 list mostly shuffled around, but that’s it.

Here’s the bottom 15.

The bulk of online tournaments are still here.

If the strength of each tournament stays this way for the rest of the year, I think there has to be some consideration to chop off a bunch of the online tournaments for 2018.

The online tournaments shouldn’t be eliminated entirely. As we’ve seen with two of the four Asia events, the talent pool can be really good. Having online tournaments is good because there is that feel the online community should get a crack to make their mark.

However, there should be far fewer tournaments. Maybe go from 16 to four. Or, maybe do two big tournaments.

Whatever decision Capcom makes this winter regarding fewer tournaments, it should start with the online events.