As the 2017 Capcom Pro Tour starts, I’ll be tracking the matches of every tournament in the series. If it’s in a Top 8, I will log it and put it in a database.
I’m doing this more for myself, even though one of my goals this year was to be the official statistician for one major esports event.
Last year, I logged some numbers on a whim, two-thirds through the season, in part because I had time before moving back to Southern California. I tracked most of the tournaments but didn’t get to all of them, so I focused more on the premier events.
This year, I’m getting on the ball right from the start. This will allow me to see the progression as the season is taking place.
Here’s what I’m curious about this year: in addition to all of the basic stats I did last year, I’m going to focus on comeback rates and blown leads.
It seems as though getting one-touch-death’d or two-touch-death’d is a major fear in Street Fighter V Season 2, so let’s see how much that factors into how people play this year.
The March 2017 me is saying that it is not going to be a factor, and that the fears of getting one-tapped or two-tapped is overblown because of the Twitter dopamine effect. Perhaps when we get to the end of the regular season, my feelings will change. Stats of that should help.
I did this for the Street Fighter IV series and it really helped me understand the process of some players who frequently were unable to lock down wins.
How it works: I track whenever both players reach 50 percent health, 25 percent health and 1 percent health (only if the player wins will I log 1 percent). When one player wins, I log the range of how much health is remaining:
— 100 (perfect)
— 51 (more than half health)
— 50 (between 50-26 percent)
— 25 (25 percent or fewer remaining)
— 1 (1 percent or the magic pixel remaining)
In addition, I’ll have whether the winning player came back when sent to 50 percent health or 25 percent health first (the winner had to be sent to 50 or 25 percent remaining and trailing at that point).
In some rounds, a player could trail when sent to 50 percent and win, or sent to 25 percent and win, or both, or it might not happen.
When I did this for the Street Fighter IV series, comebacks at 50 percent health were about 15 percent, and at 25 percent health it was 10 percent.
With Final Round and Game Over complete, the comeback rate is 12 percent at half health, 10 percent at quarter health. Let’s see whether the number stays that way or changes. My prediction is that the numbers will be slightly lower at the end of the regular season.
Here are the other things I will track. Whether it matters is another thing, but let’s see how it goes. Again, I’m doing this mostly for me:
— Time of rounds. A lot of people said the pace of play was going to be a lot faster. That would mean by far surpassing 46 seconds. If we’re getting into sub-41 seconds then I’ll accept it. After two events, we are at 45 seconds.
— Character usage and matchups. Necalli was last year’s usage champion, my prediction is Guile will be that character. Also, let’s see how many characters don’t get to a Top 8 this year.
— The times someone switches a character. Observers have harped on me (why? I don’t know. I’m not an active tournament organizer) because they believe North American tournaments should adopt the Japanese style of character lock. I don’t believe that because a player should have the option in a multiple-game match to switch characters if needed. I don’t think this will prove anything, it’s just another footnote for commentators to have.
— Round/match log
There are quite a few numbers, and having multiple points means we can look at different situations and scenarios. So while there are only a few points mentioned here, it can expand.
I’m still debating what I want to share, since sharing stats online has never gone well for me. Again, I have to remind myself that I’m doing this mostly for me because of my own curiosity.